The Chase is on
By design, winning races has reshaped the face of the 2007 Chase for the Nextel Cup.
During its brief history, however, winning Chase races has not been a prerequisite for claiming NASCAR's premier driver's championship.
Theoretically, that should raise the games of any Chaser not named Jimmie Johnson, the reigning series champion, whose six victories in 26 starts seeded him No. 1 among the 12 drivers eligible for the 10-race postseason.
The dozen drivers qualifying for the Chase after Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway had their point totals readjusted to 5,000. New for this year, drivers also received a 10-point bonus for each "regular-season" victory.
Johnson, winner of two consecutive races, will roll into New Hampshire International Speedway for Sunday's Sylvania 300 with 5,060 points. That's a 20-point advantage over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon, a four-time series champion, and a 30-point pad over two-time series champ Tony Stewart of Joe Gibbs Racing.
"It's a really stout field. I said this earlier, this is going to be the most competitive Chase we've seen," said Johnson, driver of the No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet.
"It makes it fun because you respect the guys who've made it," said Tony Stewart, driver of the No. 20 Home Depot Chevy. "The guys who've won it before know how to win championships, and then you have the other guys who're capable.
"The teams that are running the best right now have the best shot of winning the championship. You can call it momentum, I call it how you're performing."
Fourth-place Carl Edwards and fifth-place Kurt Busch, the 2004 Cup champion, both won two races prior to the cutoff, and are 40 points behind Johnson.
"It's great that we've positioned ourselves and got a couple wins to be fifth overall," said Busch, driver of the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge fielded by Penske Racing South. "That's how you have to work the system."
Single-race winners Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., 2003 series champion Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick all are 50 points behind Johnson.
"We're obviously not performing up to the level of the 24 [Jeff Gordon] and the 48 [Johnson]," said Matt Kenseth, driver of the No. 17 DeWalt Tools Ford fielded by Roush Fenway Racing. "It would take nothing short of a miracle to beat them on performance, but I certainly think I have a championship-caliber team that doesn't make mistakes and does a good job preparing the cars."
Clint Bowyer, the only Chaser never to have won a Cup race, is 12th and 60 points behind the leader.
Still, the Chase's three-year history offers proof the format rewards consistency -- and tenacity -- as much as victory.
Consider that Kurt Busch scored two victories in 10 starts en route to the championship in 2004, the first year of the Chase format. Busch, then driving for Roush Fenway Racing, posted an average Chase start of 13th (including two poles) and an average finish of 8.9.
In 2005, Tony Stewart secured his second Cup title and first under the Chase format without a win during the 10-race playoff.
His average starting position was 10th (including two poles) and his average finishing position was 9.2.
Johnson began the Chase last year with a thud, a 39th-place finish at NHIS. But beginning with Round 5 at Lowe's Motor Speedway, Johnson reeled off five consecutive top-two finishes, including his lone Chase victory at Martinsville Speedway.
His average starting position of 10.2 saw him qualify no higher than third (three times).
And his average finish of 10.8 was nearly two places higher than Busch's in 2004.
"Last year's experience of how far you can really be down and out and come back, I don't think you're going to have to dominate all 10 races," Johnson said. "It's going to be great, and if someone does [dominate], that's obviously the way you want to do it."
THREE FOR THE ROAD
Staff writer John Sturbin's Chase favorites:
Jimmie Johnson
He is trying to become the first driver to win consecutive titles since Jeff Gordon in 1997 and 1998.
Jeff Gordon
Jeff Gordon's last championship was in 2001, but he's had a fine season, finishing in the top 10 in all but five events.
Tony Stewart
Tony Stewart, a two-time series champion, is looking to make some serious noise after failing to make the Chase last year.
First race Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway, 1 p.m. Sunday. TV: WFAA/Ch. 8
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